ADM Morning Grain Comments 7/28/17

Good Morning,

As of 7:15 AM

Corn: SEP17 +0’2 @ 374’4; DEC17 +0’2 @ 388’0

Beans: AUG17 -1’6 @ 993’0; NOV17 -1’6 @ 1005’6

Wheat: SEP17 +5’4 @ 485’2

Crude: JULY17 +0.77 @ 49.12

July 28, 2017 by Steve Freed 

 

Grains are mixed. SX is down 1 cent and near 10.06. CZ is unchanged and near 3.87. WU is up 3 cents and near 4.83. US Dollar is lower.

 

For the week, All Wheat prices are down roughly 13 to 17 cents for the winters and down 25 for spring; Corn down 6 cents; Soybeans down 16 cents; Soymeal down $7.00, and; Soyoil down 10 points (December crushing margins down 2 cents).

 

Chinese Ag futures (January) were up 7 yuan in soybeans, up 3 in corn, up 32 in soymeal, up 6 yuan in soyoil, and down 2 in palm oil. The Malaysian palm oil market was down 24 ringgit at 2,653, basis October, pressured by a stronger ringgit.

 

The Midwest US weather forecast had no major changes; things will be dry in most areas today, the weekend, and much of next week; there is a chance of light to moderate rains favoring Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio at the end of next week. Temps are seen cool to below average for the weekend and first half of next week, average temps for the middle of the week, then back to below average by the end of the week.

 

The Northern U.S. Plains forecast had no major changes; below average precip will continue to occur across the majority of the region for the next week to ten days. Temps will be above average for most of the period.

 

The 11-16 Day forecast has both models, the GFS and European, showing a Northwest flow for the Midwest with ridging in the Plains/Rockies; they both have limited rains for the northern Plains and average to above average rains for the Delta. Rain ideas differ for the Midwest with the GFS showing average rains east of the Mississippi River and below in west; the European has below average precip in

 

all of the Midwest.

 

The International Grains Council cut its forecasts for 2017/18 global corn crops with prospects dimmed by dry weather in several countries; the IGC cut its forecast for the global corn crop by five million tons to 1.02 billion tons; this was driven by diminished outlooks in the United States (352.1 million from 357.7 million) and the European Union (59.5 million from 60.2 million); the cuts were partially offset by an upward revision to Brazil's 2017/18 corn crop to 90.2 million tons from 88.7 million.

 

The International Grains Council put global soybean production in 2017/18 at 345 million tons, down from a previous forecast of 348 million but still the second-biggest crop on record.

 

The International Grains Council yesterday cut its forecast for 2017/18 global wheat crops with prospects dimmed by dry weather in several countries; the IGC cut its forecast for the world wheat crop by 3 million

 

tons to 732 million; the decline was driven by downward revisions for the United States (46.7 million from 48.6 million), Australia (22.8 million from 24.8 million) and the EU (148.1 million from 149.4 million); the outlook for Russia's wheat crop was, however, upwardly revised to 71.0 million tons from 68.0 million.

 

Funds bought 6,000 soybeans, 3,000 soymeal, 5,000 corn and 1,000 wheat on Thursday. Funds are est to be long 40,000 soybeans, short 1,000 soymeal, long 50,000 soyoil, long 101,000 corn and long 22,000 wheat.

 

Support Resistance

 

Nov Beans 1000 1010

 

Sep Bean Oil 33.60 34.00

 

Sep Meal 322 326

 

Dec Corn 385 3970

 

Sep CGO Wheat 475 485